Research insights

Pre-Tet 2024 in Vietnam: How to Forecast FMCG Demand

AI-generated illustration of Tet shopping in a Vietnamese supermarket.

The weeks before Tet 2024 provide a historical reference for planning FMCG demand in Vietnam. To use them, compare equivalent weeks before Lunar New Year by category and channel, then separate changes in purchase volume from changes in prices and promotions.

Align the weeks before Tet

Set Tet as week zero and compare the same number of weeks leading up to it. Separate regular grocery trips from gifting and stock-up trips where the data allows. A calendar-month comparison can mix different stages of holiday shopping.

Compare volume, prices and channel mix

Track units sold and net sales alongside price per unit, promotional activity and stockouts. Break out relevant categories such as packaged food, beverages and gift sets. Compare traditional and modern trade separately, and report online results within the coverage of the data.

Turn the comparison into a forecast

Build a baseline from comparable weeks, then adjust for changes in store coverage, planned promotions and replenishment capacity. Prepare low, base and high scenarios and revise them as weekly sell-out data arrives. Check stockouts before interpreting weak sales as weak demand.

Use purchase data to check assumptions

iPanel INTAGE can help examine household purchase timing, basket composition and channel choice within the panel’s coverage. Use outlet sales and inventory records to check whether the products were available when households were ready to buy.